The past, present, and probable future for community banks

We review how deregulation, technological advance, and increased competitive rivalry have affected the size and health of the U.S. community banking sector and the quality and availability of banking products and services. We then develop a simple theoretical framework for analyzing how these changes have affected the competitive viability of community banks. Empirical evidence presented in this paper is consistent with the model's prediction that regulatory and technological change has exposed community banks to intensified competition on the one hand, but on the other hand has left well-managed community banks with a potentially exploitable strategic position in the industry. We also offer an analysis of how the number and distribution of community banks may change in the future.Community banks

What are the consequences of global banking for the international transmission of shocks? A quantitative analysis

The global financial crisis of 2008 was followed by a wave of regulatory reforms that affected large banks, especially those with a global presence. These reforms were reactive to the crisis. In this paper we propose a structural model of global banking that can be used proactively to perform counterfactual analysis on the effects of alternative regulatory policies. The structure of the model mimics the US regulatory framework and highlights the organizational choices that banks face when entering a foreign market: branching versus subsidiarization. When calibrated to match moments from a sample of European banks, the model is able to replicate the response of the US banking sector to the European sovereign debt crisis. Our counterfactual analysis suggests that pervasive subsidiarization, higher capital requirements, or ad hoc monetary policy interventions would have mitigated the effects of the crisis on US lending.https://www.nber.org/papers/w25203Published versio

BankCaR (Bank Capital-at-Risk): a credit risk model for U.S. commercial bank charge-offs

BankCaR is a credit risk model that forecasts the distribution of a commercial bank's charge-offs. The distribution depends only on systematic factors; BankCaR takes each bank and projects its expected charge-off across a distribution of good years and bad years. Since most bank failures occur in bad years, this analysis has promise for both banks and bank supervisors. In BankCaR, charge-offs depend on the bank's loan balances and the charge-off rates of twelve categories of lending. A joint distribution of the twelve charge-off rates is calibrated to a long history of regulatory reporting data. Applied to the US banking system, BankCaR finds that credit risk is rising and is concentrated most significantly in construction lending. Applied to individual banks, BankCaR efficiently identifies those that have an adverse combination of credit risk and capital. BankCaR uses publicly available regulatory reporting data, the most common credit portfolio model, and standard quantitative techniques. These generic qualities can provide a standard of comparison between banks. They also can provide an individual commercial bank with a benchmark for more elaborate vended credit models.Bank capital ; Risk management ; Bank failures

The endogeneity of money and the securitizing system. Beyond shadow banking

Financialization is not just a phenomenon regarding the exponential growth of the financial sector with respect to the real side of the economy. This paper aims shedding some light on the nature and the systemic impact of new elements in the financial realm and particularly on the so-called shadow banking through a macroeconomic perspective. Our analysis shows how financial evolutions have had an impact on the monetary system and on the whole economy at multiple levels. It involved the channel through which money enters the economic system, the rise of new financial institutions and activities, the implementation of monetary policies, and the relation between the real and the financial sector. What we are witnessing is not the rise of a shady version of something old whereas the surge of new forms of financial accumulation

Bye, Bye Financial Repression, Hello Financial Deepening: The Anatomy of a Financial Boom

Since the conquest of hyperinflation, with the Real Plan, in 1994, the Brazilian financial system has grown from early infancy to late adolescence. We describe the process of maturing with emphasis on the defining features of the Brazilian financial system over the last 20 years: 1) stabilization and the subsequent financial crisis; 2) universality of banks; 3) market segmentation through public lending; 4) institutional improvement. Further paraphrasing Díaz Alejandro (1984), we raise some hypotheses on why, this time, the financial boom has not (at least yet) turned into a financial crash.Financial repression; financial deepening; stabilization; stability; financial crisis;stability. Jel Codes: G21; G28; G32

What can financial stability reports tell us about macroprudential supervision?

Many countries have suggested macroprudential supervision as a means for earlier identification and better control of the risks that might lead to a financial crisis. Since macroprudential supervision would focus on the financial system in its entirety and on major risks that could threaten financial stability, it shares many of the same goals as the financial stability reports written by most central banks. This article examines the financial stability reports of five central banks to assess how effective they were in identifying the problems that led to the recent financial crisis and what implications they might have for macroprudential supervision. ; The financial stability reports in these five countries were generally successful in foreseeing the risks that contributed to the crisis, but the reports underestimated the severity of the crisis and did not fully anticipate the timing and pattern of important events. While the stress tests in these reports provided insights into the resiliency and capital needs of the banks in these countries, the stresses and scenarios tested often differed from what actually occurred and some of the reports did not consider them to be likely events. One other major challenge for the central banks was in taking the concerns expressed in financial stability reports and linking them to effective and timely supervisory policy. Overall, the reports were a worthwhile exercise in identifying and monitoring key financial trends and emerging risks, but they also indicate the significant challenges macroprudential supervision will have in anticipating and addressing financial market disruptions.

How do central banks think?

Central bank research papers are a good source of information about the topics they are exploring as policies are shaped. These papers could also help us understand the thinking behind policy recommendations in the past. Tohid Atashbar analysed two decades’ worth of central bank publications to find out how they think and act

Shadow banking and the financial side of financialization

This paper tries to shed some light on the nature and functioning of shadow banking, with a special focus on its role in the evolution of financialization as well as in sharpening income and wealth inequality. On the one hand, it discusses how securitization has allowed traditional banks to expand their business, providing the financial system with the “raw materials” for the manufacturing of complex structured financial products. On the other hand, it questions the view of traditional and shadow banks as two parallel and alternative systems, claiming that financialization did not alter the role of commercial banks as money creators, but rather diverted endogenously created money to the financial sphere, feeding its expansion. Finally, our work discusses some policy options for the de-financialization of the economy through more progressive taxation of the financial sector, as well as a stronger engagement to reduce income and wealth inequality